The two faces of artificial intelligence. Opportunities and challenges in an increasingly automated world.
More and more tasks can be taken over by computers without requiring the intervention of human workers. For some analysts, the coming technological revolution will free us from the most tedious tasks , will promote our creative side and will allow us to enjoy our time more and better . For others, we are on the verge of an unprecedented global crisis , caused by unbridled automation, in which hundreds of millions of jobs of all kinds will be lost and social differences will increase.
Ally or enemy in the labor market?
Although the leaders of the main economic powers have been asking for advice for some time now on the effects and consequences that artificial intelligence (AI) and its implementation in all kinds of processes will have on our society, the emergence of this issue in the street, in friends’ gatherings and in family conversations is quite recent. One of the main questions we ask ourselves over a few beers is this: will robots take our jobs?
But, according to various studies, the key question should perhaps be this: when will robots do all our work?
The robotic revolution: a promising future or an imminent threat?
We are at the dawn of a new revolution, and this situation, of finding ourselves heading irremediably towards something with unknown consequences, always produces uneasiness. Not since the Industrial Revolution has the world’s population been faced with a process where we know how it begins – in fact, we are already experiencing some of the effects of the implementation of automation – but not how it ends.
Still, it seems that we should be optimistic in our expectations . Robots may end up taking over almost all current job profiles, but this does not necessarily mean that humans will be left without the means to cope with their daily lives.
The speed of technological change
Today, artificial intelligence is focused on areas such as strategy simulations, language translation, autonomous vehicles and image recognition. It is also behind many commercial services, such as travel planning, recommendation systems for online shopping and personalized ads that appear while we browse the Internet.
In addition, it is finding important applications in medical diagnosis, education and research . It can be said that, so far, this technology has brought us social benefits and has contributed to revitalizing the economy.
But this is only the first phase of development. The artificial intelligence that helps us with various tasks today is known as algorithmic AI . In the medium term, so-called autonomous AI will be able to behave like us and will have at least the same cognitive abilities as us. However, it will analyse data and make decisions with much greater precision, speed and safety.
From algorithmic AI to autonomous AI
However, it will still take some time to arrive. And it will do so gradually. When the steam engine was invented, the most imaginative already predicted a future in which we would travel in contraptions that would transport us quickly from one place to another. However, despite the fact that it could be more or less obvious that such a thing would end up happening, the horse-drawn carriage continued to exist for a long time and, with it, carters, lumberjacks, horse breeders and caretakers, blacksmiths, veterinarians, tool and saddle makers… In fact, these activities still exist today, although to a much lesser extent than in the 19th century. The same will happen when AI is implemented.
Impact after 2030
In a recent report that takes into account twenty-seven OECD countries, plus Russia and Singapore, experts from the consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers claim that it will not have a significant impact on the labour market until after 2030. For example, at the beginning of the 2020s, only 3% of jobs in Spain could be threatened by automation. However, a few years later, that percentage will increase rapidly, up to 21%, and will reach 34% from 2030 onwards. And that is, as they say, the day after tomorrow. This is when the aforementioned autonomous phase of AI will begin: it will begin to take over tasks that require certain manual skills and problem solving on the spot.
The extent to which the solutions offered by this technology are implemented will be determined by economics and politics in the broadest sense. Thus, in countries where industry is more important, a sector in which it is easier to automate processes, the percentage of jobs at risk will be higher .
The rate is estimated at 44% in Slovakia, 39% in Italy and 37% in Germany. In other countries where activity is more concentrated in the service sector, such as France and the United Kingdom, the proportion of jobs at risk will be 37% and 30% respectively. In northern Europe, the rate will be more moderate: in Finland, it will be around 22%, and in Sweden and Norway, 25%.
The possible impact in Spain
In Spain, the impact of the implementation of autonomous artificial intelligence will be felt more by men, with 39% of those potentially affected compared to 28% of women. Furthermore, while 14% of university graduates would be at risk of losing their jobs due to automation , it could take away the lives of 44% of people without studies or with basic training.
Our lives will change, and it is likely that all of this will happen within the current generation. From now on, we have a little more than a decade to shape our professional profile and acquire skills that will give us an advantage when defending our jobs in the face of robotic efficiency . The main studies agree in highlighting three areas in which AI will still take time to catch up: complex problem solving, critical thinking and creativity.
Best and worst case scenarios
It is true that artificial intelligence systems are capable of dealing with issues that are beyond our capabilities , but many of the situations we face every day are difficult to define or classify; in them, the nuances can end up being as important or more important than the main question itself. For example, how could an AI assign a seat to our relatives at a Christmas meal? It would need data on all the diners – including our in-laws – their psychological, social and work profiles, previous events they have attended, what they drank… And even then, there would end up being some argument during the meal.
When problem solving needs to encompass multiple aspects or if the aspects are not fully defined, humans can more easily dip into their prior knowledge to find a solution.
Advantage of critical thinking
Humans can still connect, interpret and imagine concepts in a world full of ambiguities and nuances much better than machines. For example, an advertiser is able to construct lucky slogans, such as “The spark of life” or “Just Do It” , which consumers remember and associate with a brand. An AI will not be able to explain why such a thing is, much less be able to come up with them.
Finally, we can always turn to our creative side . Creativity requires a degree of randomness and intuition that artificial intelligence cannot yet imitate. Why did the architect choose to apply a certain inclination to one facade and not another? Why did the musician improvise by playing a chord out of tune but that sounded phenomenal?
It is very difficult to explain the whys to a computer. Simply put, thanks to our creativity, we manage to arrive at solutions that at first do not follow any apparent logic and, at the same time, we obtain results that are pleasing to others and, ultimately, work.
Fields where AI may take time
Managing personal relationships, negotiating and coordinating teams are tasks that AI will still take a long time to take over. It still has a long way to go to reach the level of development necessary to convince a child that he or she has to eat soup.
At its core, artificial intelligence is pure computing, but when we think about its possibilities we tend to imagine an android sitting at the next desk in our office or busy with housework at home . Literature and film have been showing us dystopias for years in which robots with a human appearance like ours interact with us with varying degrees of success. The fact is that steps are already being taken towards that future.
Deep learning
Take Hanson Robotics, which currently makes the most realistic robotics in the world. Its best-known creation, Sophia, can carry on conversations naturally and has been granted Saudi Arabian citizenship, sparking no small amount of controversy. She can also reflect different emotions about her surroundings – a sign of the rapid integration of AI into the field – and has her own personality, including a “caring and compassionate nature,” according to Ben Goertzel, Hanson Robotics’ chief technology officer.
According to Goertzel, despite these impressive advances, the process of machine learning is still slow. In his opinion, it is not likely that robots will enslave humanity. On the contrary, what should worry us is that they will end up passing us by, since, over time, they will be millions of times more intelligent . For this reason, Goertzel believes that it is essential that values that will benefit humanity be introduced into all AI improvement processes.
Artificial intelligence systems assimilate concepts without the need for human intervention. Deep learning allows them to accumulate huge amounts of information. By storing it in layers and through connections similar to those used by our neurons, they are even capable of reaching their own conclusions. And all of this more quickly than us, without getting tired or bored and in geometric progression.
Do we need to regulate artificial intelligence for a sustainable future?
It doesn’t take much imagination to see how this will end. What’s more, there is no way to stop the evolution and development of AI. In fact, that shouldn’t even be the goal. Politicians, regulators, business leaders, researchers and society at large would need to ask themselves what kind of framework is needed to promote the ethical development of artificial intelligence, safeguard this technology from potential abuse, and preserve or improve the quality of human life.
Industry and government on AI standards
Industry will play a key role in shaping fair AI regulations , but governments will also have to work towards a global consensus, regardless of their ideologies. Transparency, privacy, and the prevention of discrimination – and accountability – are issues that are too important to be left to companies alone, no matter how well-intentioned they may be.
Major industrial conglomerates, universities and think tanks have been analysing the problems that this phenomenon may raise from all angles for years. In fact, both the G20 and the G7 have already launched detailed studies on the impact of AI.
“Used cleverly, AI can augment our own intelligence”
In October 2016, at the end of his term in office, former US President Barack Obama received a report accredit “Preparing for the future of artificial intelligence.” A multidisciplinary group of researchers reviewed the state of the technology and offered various advocacy In these recommendations, they made it very clear that his government should prioritize studies in this field and indicated that artificial intelligence can be an important driver of economic growth and social progress. However, to do so, industry, civil society and administrations must collaborate in its development, pay special attention to its potential and properly manage its risks.
The authors of the essay also pointed out that, in any case, the main priority should be the protection of citizens , and stressed that both this objective and the security and fairness of the applications that are launched must be continuously monitored. In this way, regulatory frameworks can be adapted to advances and innovation will be encouraged while protecting the user.
In the final paragraph, they set out what lies at the heart of this whole issue: “Developing and studying artificial intelligence can help us better understand and appreciate our own. Used wisely, AI can augment our own intelligence, helping us chart a better and more prudent path forward.”
